AUD Firms Modestly as RBA Minutes Affirm Hawkish-Hold Stance

Key Takeaways:

*The Aussie stabilized after RBA minutes emphasized a data-dependent approach and signaled no urgency to ease policy.

*Strong Q2 GDP and persistent services inflation reinforced the central bank’s cautious, hold-and-see stance.

*Traders eye upcoming Chinese inflation data and ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions as key drivers for near-term AUD volatility.

Market Summary:

The Australian dollar found a bid during the Sydney session, paring earlier losses to trade marginally higher following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest meeting minutes. The currency, which had been under pressure from simmering U.S.-China trade tensions, stabilized as the minutes underscored the central bank’s commitment to a data-dependent and patient approach, pushing back against market expectations for near-term rate cuts.

The RBA reiterated its cautious stance, signaling that persistent domestic inflation and a tight labor market necessitate a prolonged period of policy stability. This view was bolstered by a recap of recent economic data, including a stronger-than-anticipated second-quarter GDP print, driven by robust household spending on the back of positive real wage growth. Furthermore, the minutes highlighted concerns over upside risks to inflation, noting that recent CPI readings exceeded forecasts due to stubbornly high services inflation and rising electricity costs.

Australia’s labor market was acknowledged as remaining slightly tight, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.2% and participation rates near historic highs. The central bank judges that stronger demand could continue to fuel wage growth, potentially embedding more persistent inflationary pressures and justifying its hold-and-see posture. Externally, the Aussie’s trajectory remains contingent on factors including U.S.-China trade relations and the efficacy of China’s stimulus measures. While trading in a narrow range currently, the currency is poised for potential volatility in tomorrow’s session with the release of key Chinese inflation data.

Technical Analysis

AUDNZD, H4:

AUDNZD is establishing a bullish technical foundation after finding strong support near the 1.1325 level. The pair has formed a triple-bottom pattern at this key mark, a classic reversal signal that indicates sustained buying interest and suggests a potential upward trajectory.

The bullish bias is further reinforced by the pair successfully holding its long-term uptrend support line. This confirms that the broader structural uptrend remains intact, and the recent consolidation is occurring within a defined bullish trajectory.

Momentum indicators present a more neutral near-term picture. The RSI has rebounded from oversold territory but continues to hover around the mid-line, reflecting a balance between buying and selling pressure. Similarly, the MACD histogram remains close to its zero line, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum at present. The convergence of the triple-bottom reversal pattern with the primary uptrend support provides a stronger bullish signal than the neutral momentum readings alone. A decisive break above the recent consolidation high would be required to confirm the bullish pattern and signal the next leg higher.

Resistance Levels: 1.1412, 1.1480

Support Levels: 1.1340, 1.1270